Risk Disclosure

Trading involves substantial risk of loss. You can lose:

• Your initial investment.
• More than your initial investment if trading on margin or with leverage.
• The opportunity cost of capital that could have been invested elsewhere.

Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Vrelum's R83 deflation, walk-forward validation, and Iron Rules are designed to:

• Reject strategies that show in-sample bias.
• Deflate backtest performance to forward-realistic estimates.
• Detect overfitting via Bonferroni correction.
• Test out-of-sample via k-fold purged validation.

The audit framework does not:

• Guarantee profits.
• Eliminate the possibility of drawdown.
• Predict regime changes in markets.
• Prevent black-swan events (severe, unexpected market dislocations).

Strategies that pass our audit have a higher probability of continued out-of-sample performance than unaudited strategies, but probabilities are not certainties.

Market risk

Markets move based on macroeconomic factors, geopolitics, regulatory decisions, central-bank policy, and unpredictable events. Even well-validated strategies can underperform during regime changes.

Model risk

Trading bots execute based on rules. If the rules' assumptions break (e.g. a permanent volatility-regime shift), the bot will continue trading until it triggers a drawdown limit.

Broker risk

Your capital is held at your broker. Broker insolvency, regulatory action, or service disruption is outside Vrelum's control.

Technical risk

• Internet outages can prevent trade execution.
• VPS downtime can pause bot operations.
• API rate limits or broker maintenance can delay orders.
• Software bugs can cause unexpected behaviour.

Regulatory risk

Trading regulations vary by jurisdiction. Algorithmic trading services may be restricted or require licensing in your country. You are responsible for compliance in your jurisdiction.

Slippage and execution risk

Backtests assume a slippage cost; live execution may incur worse slippage during volatile periods or when liquidity is thin. The audit framework includes slippage stress tests but cannot guarantee identical execution.

Our published audit numbers indicate:

• In-sample (backtest) maximum drawdown: −19.94%.
• Live-deflated maximum drawdown estimate: −22% to −28% (R83 audit).
• Worst-case 10-year drawdown (Monte Carlo): up to −35%.

Drawdowns exceeding these estimates are possible. Markets can be more extreme than historical data suggests.

Forex and CFD trading typically involves leverage (commonly 10× to 500×). Higher leverage:

• Amplifies gains and losses proportionally.
• Can result in losses exceeding your initial capital.
• Increases margin-call risk.
• Magnifies the impact of any execution error.

Vrelum's audit assumes conservative leverage (typically 5×–10× depending on the bot). Operating Vrelum bots at higher leverage than recommended is at your own risk and outside our audit assumptions.

Vrelum is a technology platform. We do not:

• Provide personalised investment advice.
• Recommend specific instruments or strategies for your specific situation.
• Guarantee any return or specific outcome.

Information published on Vrelum is provided for educational and operational purposes. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Vrelum is suitable for:

• Sophisticated traders who understand algorithmic-trading risks.
• Users with capital they can afford to lose.
• Users who have read and understood the audit methodology.
• Users who maintain emergency funds independent of trading capital.

Vrelum is not suitable for:

• Users with capital they cannot afford to lose.
• Users seeking guaranteed returns.
• Users without basic understanding of trading risks.
• Users in jurisdictions where algorithmic trading services are restricted.

By using Vrelum, you acknowledge that:

• You have read this Risk Disclosure.
• You understand that trading involves substantial risk.
• You have evaluated whether algorithmic trading is suitable for you.
• You will not invest more than you can afford to lose.
• You will monitor your account and not rely solely on automated systems.

Questions about specific risks: support@vrelum.com